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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.